Supply-chain intelligence · Publicly scored

Critical supply chains — mapped and measured.

Trace who supplies whom, where dependencies concentrate, and what happens next. Every dated question is measured forward against published scoring rules.

Public contracts · Forward results · No backtests

Highest pressure

Large power transformers · The Living Power Map

+48.5 pts over 13 weeks · Market data through 2026-10-22

Explore maps View track record

5 supply chains. One public method.

Each map traces a different physical system. Every dated question follows the same published scoring rules.

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The maps and all resolved questions are public. A free weekly key unlocks upcoming questions and their registered baskets.

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  1. 01

    Map

    Trace suppliers, customers and concentrated dependencies.

  2. 02

    Question

    Define a dated, falsifiable question before the event.

  3. 03

    Score

    Publish the answer and measure the market response forward, against a scoring contract published in advance that anyone can verify it against.

Scoring contracts are hashed and dated. Late commitments remain public but do not count as preregistered.

The Living Chip Map traces its chain in layers: materials, board & package materials, equipment & test, design tools & IP, logic & accelerators, memory & storage, fab, packaging & substrates, systems & networking, optics, power, passives & cooling, cloud and power. Its semiconductor chokepoints are concentrated dependencies with few alternatives, such as EUV lithography, HBM memory and advanced packaging.

Measurement method

Dated questions

The maps are paired with 92 dated questions across the chain. Each has a fixed answer date, a written YES/NO rule and a registered impact basket: the companies its answer bears on. Observation-only questions (2 today) carry no basket and are not scored.

Forward measurement

After an answer is marked, the registered basket is measured from the close of the next trading session. The official result is excess return versus the equal-weight map (EW_MAP) at the registered primary horizon of 20 trading sessions; 5, 10 and 40 sessions are kept as diagnostics, alongside each map's own second benchmark, named on its card above. Mixed or unclear answers are recorded as observations and are not scored.

Public commitments

The complete scoring contract — baskets, YES/NO criteria, horizons and benchmarks — is hashed with SHA-256 and published with the date it was committed, in commitments.json. 38 of the 39 contracts committed so far were committed before their answer date. A contract counts as preregistered only when it was committed before the answer date. Late commitments remain public and are excluded from preregistered results. Once a question resolves, its full card is published in track_public.json with the exact contract text, and Verify recomputes the hash in your browser.

Forward testing, no backtests

Questions enter the record before outcomes and subsequent price moves are known. Nothing here is backtested: every published result is measured forward from the day its question is marked, and shown with its sample size on the Track record.

Audit the commitments, resolved contracts and verification data in the published record.

Questions

What is Linchpin Signal?

Linchpin Signal maps physical supply chains, identifies concentrated dependencies and publishes dated questions whose outcomes are measured forward against the market.

What is public?

Every map, chokepoint, event date, resolved question and measured result is public. Upcoming question details and registered baskets require the free weekly key.

How are questions registered?

Each scoring contract is hashed and dated. When the question resolves, the full contract is published and can be verified in the browser.

Is this investment advice?

No. Linchpin Signal publishes supply-chain research, questions and measurements. It does not publish recommendations.