Seven medicine chains from key starting materials and APIs to manufacturing and distribution.
Dated questions across the chain. Solid markers have confirmed answer dates; outlined markers have expected dates. Measurement method
Resolved questions and their forward market results. Partial answers remain in the public record but do not enter the score.
Every question carries a scoring contract written in advance: the baskets, the yes/no rule, the horizons and the benchmarks, hashed and published with the day they were set. Only contracts committed before the answer count as preregistered.
The score is measured from the first close after the mark, against the equal-weight map and against the second benchmark, and read at the primary horizon. There is no backtest here and there cannot be one — the forecast was written before the price moved. The sample is small, and every number here is shown with its N.
Each card states what would count as YES, what would count as NO, why the answer matters and which companies are expected to move.
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