Public track record

Every resolved question. Every measured result.

See what was committed, when it was committed and what happened next. Results are measured forward against published scoring rules.

Public contracts · Sample size shown · No backtests

There is no pooled mean excess: excess is measured against each map's own equal-weight benchmark and is reported per map, never pooled. See the per-map figures below.

Results become meaningful at n=30

Results by map

Each map is scored against its own equal-weight universe. Combined figures are shown only where the methodology supports aggregation.

How results are measured

A question is measured from the first market close after its answer is marked. The official result is the registered basket's excess return versus the equal-weight map at the registered primary horizon.

Other horizons and each map's second benchmark remain diagnostic. Partial answers are preserved as observations and are not scored. Every result is shown with its sample size.

A contract counts as preregistered only when it was committed before the answer date. Late commitments remain public and are excluded from preregistered results. No results are backtested.