05 · Track record

What the forecast said — and what happened

Every resolved question is shown with its registered basket, answer, market entry and forward result. Verify recomputes the published contract hash in your browser.

A contract counts as preregistered only when it was committed before the answer date. Late commitments remain public and are excluded from preregistered results. The official score is excess over the equal-weight map after 20 sessions.

38/39 contracts committed before the answer · 1 committed late.

Resolved questions

Full question, decision rule, evidence, registered basket and verification data.

Market results

Returns for the registered basket, the equal-weight map and SOX, measured over the same window. Prices use Yahoo Finance end-of-day market data.

Upcoming questions

Dates and preregistration status are public. The free weekly key unlocks question details and registered baskets.

Unlock upcoming questions

The maps and all resolved questions are public. A free weekly key unlocks upcoming questions and their registered baskets.

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