{ "as_of": "2026-10-22", "primary_horizon": 20, "summary": { "n_cards": 39, "n_forecasts": 0, "n_open": 0, "n_scored": 0, "n_answered": 4, "n_unscored": 4, "n_upcoming": 33, "next_up": { "d": "2026-10-22", "who": "Intel Q3" }, "direct_hit_5": { "n": 0, "value": null }, "direct_spread_5": { "n": 0, "value": null }, "direct_spread_20": { "n": 0, "value": null }, "ring2_hit_5": { "n": 0, "value": null }, "ring2_spread_5": { "n": 0, "value": null }, "record": { "primary_horizon": 20, "benchmark": "EW_MAP", "n": 0, "min_n_for_interval": 8, "min_n_for_capital": 30, "capital_gated": true, "capital_rule": "Results become meaningful at n=30", "hits": 0, "hit_rate": null, "hit_rate_interval": null, "mean_excess": null, "median_excess": null, "mean_excess_interval": null, "note": "No forecast has completed its 20-session window yet", "sox": { "diagnostic": true, "horizon": 20, "n": 0, "mean_excess": null, "median_excess": null }, "diagnostic": { "5": { "diagnostic": true, "n": 0, "hits": 0, "mean_excess": null }, "10": { "diagnostic": true, "n": 0, "hits": 0, "mean_excess": null }, "40": { "diagnostic": true, "n": 0, "hits": 0, "mean_excess": null } }, "direct": { "diagnostic": true, "horizon": 20, "n": 0, "hits": 0, "label": "Direct (diagnostic)" }, "by_contract": { "versions": { "1": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "hit_rate": null, "hit_rate_interval": null, "mean_excess": null, "median_excess": null, "mean_excess_interval": null, "capital_gated": true, "capital_rule": "Results become meaningful at n=30", "note": "No forecast has completed its 20-session window yet", "contract_version": 1, "label": "Direct (contract v1)" }, "2": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "hit_rate": null, "hit_rate_interval": null, "mean_excess": null, "median_excess": null, "mean_excess_interval": null, "capital_gated": true, "capital_rule": "Results become meaningful at n=30", "note": "No forecast has completed its 20-session window yet", "contract_version": 2, "label": "Second ring (scored)" } }, "scored_versions": [], "mixed": false } } }, "record_table": [ { "qid": "orcl_q1", "who": "Oracle Q1 FY27", "tk": "ORCL", "answer_date": "2026-09-10", "kind": "", "verdict": "mixed", "basket": -2.8918, "ew": -2.6323, "sox": -2.6734, "excess_ew": -0.2595, "sessions": 28, "committed_at": "2026-09-13", "sha": "6a02cce2d486", "scored": false, "official_excess": null, "no_series": 0 }, { "qid": "mu_fq4", "who": "Micron FQ4", "tk": "MU", "answer_date": "2026-09-30", "kind": "", "verdict": "mixed", "basket": -14.2023, "ew": -8.2952, "sox": -8.9052, "excess_ew": -5.9071, "sessions": 16, "committed_at": "2026-09-29", "sha": "c4be08e4e586", "scored": false, "official_excess": null, "no_series": 0 }, { "qid": "smsg_pre", "who": "Samsung Q3 (preliminary)", "tk": "005930", "answer_date": "2026-10-08", "kind": "", "verdict": "none", "basket": -21.2397, "ew": -14.1354, "sox": -12.4553, "excess_ew": -7.1043, "sessions": 13, "committed_at": "2026-10-02", "sha": "685221e5fbb9", "scored": false, "official_excess": null, "no_series": 0 }, { "qid": "asml_q3", "who": "ASML Q3", "tk": "ASML", "answer_date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "", "verdict": "none", "basket": -13.9264, "ew": -14.1354, "sox": -12.4553, "excess_ew": 0.209, "sessions": 13, "committed_at": "2026-10-02", "sha": "3023ba97f129", "scored": false, "official_excess": null, "no_series": 0 } ], "glossary": { "euv": { "label": "EUV", "def": "Extreme-ultraviolet lithography: the light used to print the smallest chip features. ASML is the only maker of the machines.", "match": [ "EUV" ], "stop": [] }, "bookings": { "label": "Bookings", "def": "New orders received in the quarter, as opposed to revenue, which is what was delivered. Bookings say what next year looks like.", "match": [ "Bookings", "bookings", "orders" ], "stop": [] }, "high_na": { "label": "High-NA", "def": "The next generation of EUV machines, larger optics for even finer printing. A count of units is a count of who is building the next node.", "match": [ "High-NA" ], "stop": [] }, "guidance": { "label": "Guidance", "def": "The company's own forecast for the coming quarter or year, given with its results. \"Raised\" or \"cut\" guidance moves stocks more than the results themselves.", "match": [ "guidance", "Guidance", "guide", "guided" ], "stop": [] }, "fab": { "label": "Fab", "def": "A chip factory. Building one takes two to three years and tens of billions of dollars.", "match": [ "Fab", "fab", "fabs" ], "stop": [] }, "preliminary_numbers": { "label": "Preliminary numbers", "def": "Samsung publishes rough quarterly figures about three weeks before the full report. The first hard signal of the quarter.", "match": [ "preliminary", "preliminary numbers", "Preliminary numbers" ], "stop": [] }, "hbm": { "label": "HBM", "def": "High-bandwidth memory: stacks of memory chips bonded next to the GPU. HBM4 is the next generation; whoever supplies NVIDIA's HBM holds the memory chokepoint.", "match": [ "HBM", "HBM3E", "HBM4", "high-bandwidth memory" ], "stop": [] }, "operating_profit": { "label": "Operating profit", "def": "Profit from the core business before interest and tax; margin is that profit as a share of revenue. A rising margin means pricing power.", "match": [ "gross margin", "margin", "operating margin", "Operating profit", "operating profit" ], "stop": [] }, "sequentially": { "label": "Sequentially", "def": "Compared with the previous quarter, not with the same quarter last year. The faster signal.", "match": [ "q/q", "quarter on quarter", "Sequentially", "sequentially" ], "stop": [] }, "coater": { "label": "Coater", "def": "The machine that applies resist to a wafer before EUV printing. Tokyo Electron is the sole supplier for EUV.", "match": [ "coater", "Coater", "coaters", "track" ], "stop": [ "on track", "off track", "back on track", "track record" ] }, "capex": { "label": "Capex", "def": "Capital expenditure: what a company spends on buildings, chips and equipment rather than on running costs. For a cloud company, mostly data centers and GPUs.", "match": [ "capex", "Capex", "capital expenditure" ], "stop": [] }, "fy": { "label": "FY", "def": "A company's fiscal year; Oracle's FY27 runs June 2026 to May 2027, so its quarters do not match the calendar.", "match": [ "fiscal year", "FY", "FY26", "FY27", "FY28" ], "stop": [] }, "rpo": { "label": "RPO", "def": "Remaining performance obligations: contracts customers have signed that the company has not yet delivered or billed. The order book.", "match": [ "remaining performance obligations", "RPO" ], "stop": [] }, "rare_earth_magnets": { "label": "Rare-earth magnets", "def": "Magnets in every motor, drive and actuator; China controls the supply and can require licenses to export them.", "match": [ "magnets", "rare earth", "rare-earth", "Rare-earth magnets" ], "stop": [] }, "germanium": { "label": "Germanium", "def": "Metals inside optics and power chips; China supplies most of the world's and has used export bans as leverage.", "match": [ "gallium", "Germanium", "germanium" ], "stop": [] }, "substrate": { "label": "Substrate", "def": "The board a chip sits on inside its package. ABF is the insulating film in almost all of them (one maker: Ajinomoto); glass is the candidate to replace it.", "match": [ "ABF", "FC-BGA", "glass substrate", "Substrate", "substrate", "substrates" ], "stop": [] }, "spie": { "label": "SPIE", "def": "The annual lithography conference where TSMC, Intel and the equipment makers publish their next-generation results.", "match": [ "SPIE" ], "stop": [] } }, "forecasts": [ { "qid": "asml_q3", "id": "asml_q3", "who": "ASML Q3", "tk": "ASML", "d": "2026-10-14", "confirmed": true, "status": "none", "direction": 1, "auto": true, "marked_at": "2026-10-22T01:39:24Z", "entry_date": null, "win": [ "asml", "tsmc", "samsung", "intc", "skhynix", "lasertec", "hoya" ], "lose": [], "observe_only": false, "win2": [ "lrcx", "amat", "advantest", "siltronic", "tel", "klac", "shinetsu", "ibiden" ], "lose2": [], "ring2_edges": [ { "from": "lrcx", "to": "tsmc", "label": "Etch/deposition equipment" }, { "from": "lrcx", "to": "samsung", "label": "Etch/deposition equipment" }, { "from": "lrcx", "to": "intc", "label": "Intel supplier: 2026 EPIC award for Excellence in Susta…" }, { "from": "lrcx", "to": "skhynix", "label": "Etch/deposition equipment" }, { "from": "amat", "to": "tsmc", "label": "Deposition/etch/CMP/implant equipment" }, { "from": "amat", "to": "samsung", "label": "Deposition/etch/CMP/implant equipment" }, { "from": "amat", "to": "intc", "label": "Intel supplier: 2026 EPIC award for Excellence in Techn…" }, { "from": "advantest", "to": "tsmc", "label": "SoC test systems/handlers" }, { "from": "advantest", "to": "skhynix", "label": "Memory/HBM test systems" }, { "from": "siltronic", "to": "tsmc", "label": "300mm wafers" }, { "from": "siltronic", "to": "samsung", "label": "300mm wafers" }, { "from": "tel", "to": "tsmc", "label": "Coater/developer, etch, deposition equipment" }, { "from": "tel", "to": "intc", "label": "Intel supplier: 2026 EPIC award for Excellence in Techn…" }, { "from": "klac", "to": "tsmc", "label": "Process control / inspection & metrology" }, { "from": "klac", "to": "intc", "label": "Intel supplier: 2026 EPIC award for Excellence in Techn…" }, { "from": "shinetsu", "to": "tsmc", "label": "300mm silicon wafers and photoresist" }, { "from": "ibiden", "to": "intc", "label": "IC package substrates" } ], "ring1_edges": [ { "id": "asml", "label": "" }, { "id": "tsmc", "label": "EUV and High-NA EUV scanners" }, { "id": "samsung", "label": "EUV scanners" }, { "id": "intc", "label": "EUV incl. first production High-NA EXE:5200B shipment (Q2 2025)" }, { "id": "skhynix", "label": "EUV for 1a/1b DRAM used in HBM" }, { "id": "lasertec", "label": "" }, { "id": "hoya", "label": "" } ], "labels": { "asml": "ASML", "tsmc": "TSMC", "samsung": "Samsung", "intc": "INTC", "skhynix": "SK hynix", "lasertec": "Lasertec", "hoya": "HOYA", "lrcx": "LRCX", "amat": "AMAT", "advantest": "Advantest", "siltronic": "Siltronic", "tel": "TEL", "klac": "KLAC", "shinetsu": "Shin-Etsu", "ibiden": "Ibiden" }, "has_r2": true, "contract_version": 2, "ring2_confidence": "W", "commitment": { "answer_date": "2026-10-14", "committed_at": "2026-10-02", "sha256": "3023ba97f12917959be36405ec0dd3eb76046d0f127d2d86d3002fe76929f2dc", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": true, "revised_at": "2026-10-02", "revision_note": "Revised 2026-10-02, before the answer date: second-ring basket added and made the scored basket (contract v2).", "history": [ { "sha256": "fa90dc7c1fdc549d84b92df14d86104258bf827acd36fc1415dc6180c19d643e", "committed_at": "2026-09-13" }, { "sha256": "2bdec87d0f59b9c700369852597e68978448648fad90c0fcf14df3aa166bc862", "committed_at": "2026-09-15" } ], "liquidity": { "checked_at": "2026-10-02", "min_adv_usd": 250000, "legs": { "asml": { "symbol": "ASML.US", "adv_usd": 2590196903, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "tsmc": { "symbol": "TSM.US", "adv_usd": 4857616092, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "samsung": { "symbol": "005930.KO", "adv_usd": 4546305883, "last_close": "2026-10-02" }, "intc": { "symbol": "INTC.US", "adv_usd": 10993909309, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "skhynix": { "symbol": "000660.KO", "adv_usd": 6100541543, "last_close": "2026-10-02" }, "lasertec": { "symbol": "LSRCY.US", "adv_usd": 5109778, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "hoya": { "symbol": "HOCPY.US", "adv_usd": 5910585, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "tel": { "symbol": "8035.T", "adv_usd": 1371851439, "last_close": "2026-10-02" }, "tok": { "symbol": "4186.T", "adv_usd": 50476455, "last_close": "2026-10-02" }, "agc": { "symbol": "5201.T", "adv_usd": 50995627, "last_close": "2026-10-02" }, "klac": { "symbol": "KLAC.US", "adv_usd": 2038542206, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "lrcx": { "symbol": "LRCX.US", "adv_usd": 2988484153, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "amat": { "symbol": "AMAT.US", "adv_usd": 3710616982, "last_close": "2026-10-01" } } }, "ew_map": { "sha256": "f8b196211c5404c7d8a3ade1e2971cc17c02ac9390dc8a3113ab378eb1382df4", "n": 130, "symbols": [ "000660.KO", "000962.SHE", "005930.KO", "009150.KO", "011790.KO", "042700.KO", "095340.KQ", "1815.TWO", "2317.TW", "2327.TW", "2344.TW", "2368.TW", "2383.TW", "2408.TW", "2737.T", "285A.T", "300308.SHE", "300394.SHE", "300502.SHE", "3017.TW", "3037.TW", "3042.TW", "3081.TWO", "3110.T", "3189.TW", "3653.TW", "4004.T", "4078.T", "4186.T", "5016.T", "5201.T", "5706.T", "5714.T", "5801.T", "5802.T", "5803.T", "605589.SHG", "6274.TWO", "6278.T", "6488.TWO", "6525.T", "6752.T", "6762.T", "6871.T", "688008.SHG", "688126.SHG", "6962.T", "6971.T", "6976.T", "6981.T", "6996.T", "8021.TW", "8035.T", "8046.TW", "8299.TWO", "8358.TWO", "AAOI.US", "AJNMY.US", "ALAB.US", "AMAT.US", "AMD.US", "AMKR.US", "AMZN.US", "ANET.US", "ARM.US", "ASML.US", "ASMVY.US", "ASX.US", "ATEYY.US", "AVGO.US", "AXTI.US", "CDNS.US", "CEG.US", "CLF.US", "COHR.US", "CRDO.US", "CRWV.US", "ENR.XETRA", "ENTG.US", "ETN.US", "FN.US", "FORM.US", "GEV.US", "GLW.US", "GOOGL.US", "HOCPY.US", "HPQ.US", "HWM.US", "IBIDY.US", "IFX.XETRA", "INTC.US", "IQE.LSE", "KLAC.US", "LITE.US", "LRCX.US", "LSRCY.US", "LYC.AU", "META.US", "MP.US", "MPWR.US", "MRVL.US", "MSFT.US", "MU.US", "MXL.US", "NVDA.US", "ON.US", "ORCL.US", "RMBS.US", "SHECY.US", "SIMO.US", "SMCI.US", "SMTC.US", "SNDK.US", "SNPS.US", "SOI.PA", "STX.US", "SUOPY.US", "TECK.US", "TER.US", "TPRO.MI", "TSEM.US", "TSM.US", "UMI.BR", "VICR.US", "VNP.TO", "VRT.US", "VSH.US", "WAF.XETRA", "WCH.XETRA", "WDC.US" ] } }, "note": "auto: no clean answer within 5 sessions", "report_date": "2026-10-14", "prereg": { "sha256": "3023ba97f12917959be36405ec0dd3eb76046d0f127d2d86d3002fe76929f2dc", "committed_at": "2026-10-02", "answer_date": "2026-10-14", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": true, "contract": "{\"benchmarks\":{\"ew\":\"EW_MAP: equal-weight of the map's priced nodes\",\"sox\":\"SOXQ.US\"},\"contract_version\":2,\"horizons\":[5,10,20,40],\"kind\":\"tide\",\"lose\":[],\"no_criteria\":\"Bookings down or \\\"lumpy\\\", no High-NA count, 2027 flat.\",\"observe_only\":false,\"official_basket\":\"ring2\",\"primary_horizon\":20,\"qid\":\"asml_q3\",\"ring2_confidence\":\"W\",\"ring2_lose\":[\"amat\",\"lrcx\"],\"ring2_rationale\":{\"lose\":\"More EUV layers replace multi-patterning steps, cutting deposition and etch intensity per critical layer (Lam, Applied).\",\"win\":\"Accelerating EUV pulls the EUV track (TEL), EUV resist (TOK), EUV mask blanks (AGC; HOYA is ring 1) and EUV-layer process control (KLA).\"},\"ring2_win\":[\"agc\",\"klac\",\"tel\",\"tok\"],\"sign_convention\":\"yes -> win basket up / lose basket down; no -> inverted\",\"win\":[\"asml\",\"hoya\",\"intc\",\"lasertec\",\"samsung\",\"skhynix\",\"tsmc\"],\"yes_criteria\":\"EUV bookings up, High-NA units named, 2027 guided above 2026. China share falling as planned.\"}", "revised_at": "2026-10-02", "revision_note": "Revised 2026-10-02, before the answer date: second-ring basket added and made the scored basket (contract v2).", "history": [ { "sha256": "fa90dc7c1fdc549d84b92df14d86104258bf827acd36fc1415dc6180c19d643e", "committed_at": "2026-09-13" }, { "sha256": "2bdec87d0f59b9c700369852597e68978448648fad90c0fcf14df3aa166bc862", "committed_at": "2026-09-15" } ] }, "q": "Will ASML's Q3 EUV bookings, High-NA units and 2027 outlook say the build-out is still accelerating?", "yes": "EUV bookings up, High-NA units named, 2027 guided above 2026. China share falling as planned.", "no": "Bookings down or \"lumpy\", no High-NA count, 2027 flat.", "why": "ASML is the ceiling on everything below it. No EUV order today, no new fab capacity in two years.", "day_index": null, "next_checkpoint": null, "sessions_to": null, "state": "reported", "members": [ { "id": "asml", "tk": "ASML", "label": "ASML", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 1650.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 1676.6899, "day_pct": 2.8114, "since_pct": null, "since_report": 1.6176, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "tsmc", "tk": "TSM", "label": "TSMC", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 430.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 431.89, "day_pct": 1.6021, "since_pct": null, "since_report": 0.4395, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "label": "Samsung", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 232000.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 223500.0, "day_pct": 5.6738, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -3.6638, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "intc", "tk": "INTC", "label": "INTC", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 98.12, "entry_close": null, "last": 92.96, "day_pct": 1.3851, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -5.2589, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "label": "SK hynix", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 1419000.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 1294000.0, "day_pct": 5.8054, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -8.809, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "lasertec", "tk": "6920.T", "label": "Lasertec", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 55.52, "entry_close": null, "last": 50.67, "day_pct": 1.3197, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -8.7356, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "hoya", "tk": "7741.T", "label": "HOYA", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 158.16, "entry_close": null, "last": 168.59, "day_pct": 1.6337, "since_pct": null, "since_report": 6.5946, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "lrcx", "tk": "LRCX", "label": "LRCX", "group": "win2", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 286.92, "entry_close": null, "last": 260.81, "day_pct": -1.0021, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -9.1001, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "amat", "tk": "AMAT", 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"ring": 2, "symbol": "WAF.XETRA", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "EUR", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 83.85, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 64.35, "day_pct": -0.2326, "since_commit": -23.2558, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "tel", "tk": "8035.T", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "8035.T", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "JPY", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 12100.0, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 10160.0, "day_pct": 0.7437, "since_commit": -16.0331, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "klac", "tk": "KLAC", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "KLAC.US", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 206.89, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 163.43, "day_pct": 1.0449, "since_commit": -21.0063, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "shinetsu", "tk": "4063.T", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "SHECY.US", "priced_via": "adr", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 19.33, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 18.57, "day_pct": -0.5889, "since_commit": -3.9317, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "ibiden", "tk": "4062.T", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "IBIDY.US", "priced_via": "adr", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 20.65, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 15.26, "day_pct": 2.8302, "since_commit": -26.1017, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null } ], "no_series": [], "benchmarks": { "from": "2026-10-02", "to": "2026-10-21", "sessions": 13, "win": -13.9264, "lose": null, "ew": -14.1354, "sox": -12.4553, "series": { "dates": [ "2026-10-02", "2026-10-05", "2026-10-06", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-19", "2026-10-20", "2026-10-21" ], "win": [ 0.0, -0.5322, -1.6399, -2.7957, -5.2666, -4.7223, -7.1904, -9.4126, -11.9699, -15.7806, -16.6473, -15.9592, -16.2119, -13.9264 ], "ew": [ 0.0, 1.0403, 2.0763, 0.8046, -2.2525, -1.946, -4.3772, -6.4299, -9.1555, -13.5326, -14.9625, -14.1885, -15.852, -14.1354 ], "sox": [ 0.0, 0.2901, 0.5996, -0.6092, -3.8584, -4.3323, -6.8755, -7.1366, -11.0821, -11.8654, -15.25, -13.8768, -14.1572, -12.4553 ] }, "win_ew": 0.209, "win_sox": -1.4711 }, "companies": [ { "id": "asml", "tk": "ASML", "symbol": "ASML.US", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 99.601, 98.2215, 96.661, 94.7775, 95.3425, 93.7306, 91.9912, 88.3624, 88.7608, 87.9083, 88.2082, 87.3363, 89.7917 ] }, { "id": "tsmc", "tk": "TSM", "symbol": "TSM.US", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 102.7539, 102.0136, 99.8773, 96.8717, 95.8818, 93.9866, 94.1495, 90.9514, 89.3122, 87.2731, 88.8828, 89.9107, 91.3512 ] }, { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "symbol": "005930.KO", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 100.0, 98.5507, 97.2826, 94.9275, 94.9275, 90.7609, 84.058, 84.058, 76.087, 78.0797, 78.9855, 76.6304, 80.9783 ] }, { "id": "intc", "tk": "INTC", "symbol": "INTC.US", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 97.3686, 94.2764, 94.7959, 89.7344, 87.7399, 84.9325, 86.156, 82.2258, 79.9212, 75.2954, 77.1223, 76.8373, 77.9016 ] }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "symbol": "000660.KO", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 100.0, 96.3064, 93.5904, 91.3091, 91.3091, 87.1809, 78.3813, 77.0777, 68.5497, 69.0929, 69.3645, 66.4313, 70.2879 ] }, { "id": "lasertec", "tk": "6920.T", "symbol": "LSRCY.US", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 96.7826, 96.7048, 96.771, 94.6018, 100.1822, 97.9964, 96.5557, 91.9358, 84.567, 82.9608, 82.4143, 82.8117, 83.9046 ] }, { "id": "hoya", "tk": "7741.T", "symbol": "HOCPY.US", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 99.7687, 102.4475, 101.4518, 100.9122, 101.561, 101.0792, 102.8201, 101.5995, 102.3383, 102.8586, 103.3083, 106.5588, 108.2996 ] } ], "official": { "counts": false, "state": "unscored", "reason": "answered with no clear signal: no direction, so no forecast -- shown as an observation, not in the score" }, "horizons": {} } }, { "qid": "smsg_pre", "id": "smsg_pre", "who": "Samsung Q3 (preliminary)", "tk": "005930", "d": "2026-10-08", "confirmed": false, "status": "none", "direction": 1, "auto": true, "marked_at": "2026-10-16T01:31:52Z", "entry_date": null, "win": [ "samsung", "skhynix", "mu" ], "lose": [], "observe_only": false, "win2": [ "asml", "lrcx", "amat", "siltronic", "hanmi", "shinetsu", "advantest", "globalwafers" ], "lose2": [], "ring2_edges": [ { "from": "asml", "to": "samsung", "label": "EUV scanners" }, { "from": "asml", "to": "skhynix", "label": "EUV for 1a/1b DRAM used in HBM" }, { "from": "asml", "to": "mu", "label": "EUV lithography for 1-gamma DRAM. Micron's 2023 release…" }, { "from": "lrcx", "to": "samsung", "label": "Etch/deposition equipment" }, { "from": "lrcx", "to": "skhynix", "label": "Etch/deposition equipment" }, { "from": "lrcx", "to": "mu", "label": "Etch/deposition equipment" }, { "from": "amat", "to": "samsung", "label": "Deposition/etch/CMP/implant equipment" }, { "from": "amat", "to": "mu", "label": "Micron supplier: winner of Micron's Sustainability awar…" }, { "from": "siltronic", "to": "samsung", "label": "300mm wafers" }, { "from": "siltronic", "to": "mu", "label": "Front-end materials. Winner of Micron's Front End Mater…" }, { "from": "hanmi", "to": "skhynix", "label": "TC bonders for HBM stacking" }, { "from": "hanmi", "to": "mu", "label": "Thermal-compression bonders for HBM: about 50 units rep…" }, { "from": "shinetsu", "to": "mu", "label": "Front-end materials. Winner of Micron's Front End Mater…" }, { "from": "advantest", "to": "skhynix", "label": "Memory/HBM test systems" }, { "from": "globalwafers", "to": "mu", "label": "300mm raw silicon wafers from Sherman, Texas: Micron is…" } ], "ring1_edges": [ { "id": "samsung", "label": "" }, { "id": "skhynix", "label": "" }, { "id": "mu", "label": "" } ], "labels": { "samsung": "Samsung", "skhynix": "SK hynix", "mu": "MU", "asml": "ASML", "lrcx": "LRCX", "amat": "AMAT", "siltronic": "Siltronic", "hanmi": "Hanmi", "shinetsu": "Shin-Etsu", "advantest": "Advantest", "globalwafers": "GlobalWafers" }, "has_r2": true, "contract_version": 2, "ring2_confidence": "M", "commitment": { "answer_date": "2026-10-08", "committed_at": "2026-10-02", "sha256": "685221e5fbb97b7fe220eec71a841918e5c5b2854d71c2a702d56bea4501b088", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": true, "revised_at": "2026-10-02", "revision_note": "Revised 2026-10-02, before the answer date: second-ring basket added and made the scored basket (contract v2).", "history": [ { "sha256": "70d69183fc6fde63b72a1cbf37831aa81f56239b2d905bef8bbcf2ea7d0edfa5", "committed_at": "2026-09-13" }, { "sha256": "218241cbddb69644142393e0ffc15d5da2de3e9bfc38008044af855c5b3ab7f9", "committed_at": "2026-09-15" } ], "liquidity": { "checked_at": "2026-10-02", "min_adv_usd": 250000, "legs": { "samsung": { "symbol": "005930.KO", "adv_usd": 4580751918, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "skhynix": { "symbol": "000660.KO", "adv_usd": 6154396521, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "mu": { "symbol": "MU.US", "adv_usd": 31744326266, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "lrcx": { "symbol": "LRCX.US", "adv_usd": 2988484153, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "advantest": { "symbol": "ATEYY.US", "adv_usd": 20833802, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "shinetsu": { "symbol": "SHECY.US", "adv_usd": 10731069, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "globalwafers": { "symbol": "6488.TWO", "adv_usd": 338696855, "last_close": "2026-10-01" }, "hpq": { "symbol": "HPQ.US", "adv_usd": 451559255, "last_close": "2026-10-01" } } }, "ew_map": { "sha256": "f8b196211c5404c7d8a3ade1e2971cc17c02ac9390dc8a3113ab378eb1382df4", "n": 130, "symbols": [ "000660.KO", "000962.SHE", "005930.KO", "009150.KO", "011790.KO", "042700.KO", "095340.KQ", "1815.TWO", "2317.TW", "2327.TW", "2344.TW", "2368.TW", "2383.TW", "2408.TW", "2737.T", "285A.T", "300308.SHE", "300394.SHE", "300502.SHE", "3017.TW", "3037.TW", "3042.TW", "3081.TWO", "3110.T", "3189.TW", "3653.TW", "4004.T", "4078.T", "4186.T", "5016.T", "5201.T", "5706.T", "5714.T", "5801.T", "5802.T", "5803.T", "605589.SHG", "6274.TWO", "6278.T", "6488.TWO", "6525.T", "6752.T", "6762.T", "6871.T", "688008.SHG", "688126.SHG", "6962.T", "6971.T", "6976.T", "6981.T", "6996.T", "8021.TW", "8035.T", "8046.TW", "8299.TWO", "8358.TWO", "AAOI.US", "AJNMY.US", "ALAB.US", "AMAT.US", "AMD.US", "AMKR.US", "AMZN.US", "ANET.US", "ARM.US", "ASML.US", "ASMVY.US", "ASX.US", "ATEYY.US", "AVGO.US", "AXTI.US", "CDNS.US", "CEG.US", "CLF.US", "COHR.US", "CRDO.US", "CRWV.US", "ENR.XETRA", "ENTG.US", "ETN.US", "FN.US", "FORM.US", "GEV.US", "GLW.US", "GOOGL.US", "HOCPY.US", "HPQ.US", "HWM.US", "IBIDY.US", "IFX.XETRA", "INTC.US", "IQE.LSE", "KLAC.US", "LITE.US", "LRCX.US", "LSRCY.US", "LYC.AU", "META.US", "MP.US", "MPWR.US", "MRVL.US", "MSFT.US", "MU.US", "MXL.US", "NVDA.US", "ON.US", "ORCL.US", "RMBS.US", "SHECY.US", "SIMO.US", "SMCI.US", "SMTC.US", "SNDK.US", "SNPS.US", "SOI.PA", "STX.US", "SUOPY.US", "TECK.US", "TER.US", "TPRO.MI", "TSEM.US", "TSM.US", "UMI.BR", "VICR.US", "VNP.TO", "VRT.US", "VSH.US", "WAF.XETRA", "WCH.XETRA", "WDC.US" ] } }, "note": "auto: no clean answer within 5 sessions", "report_date": "2026-10-08", "prereg": { "sha256": "685221e5fbb97b7fe220eec71a841918e5c5b2854d71c2a702d56bea4501b088", "committed_at": "2026-10-02", "answer_date": "2026-10-08", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": true, "contract": "{\"benchmarks\":{\"ew\":\"EW_MAP: equal-weight of the map's priced nodes\",\"sox\":\"SOXQ.US\"},\"contract_version\":2,\"horizons\":[5,10,20,40],\"kind\":\"tide\",\"lose\":[],\"no_criteria\":\"Memory profit flat or down.\",\"observe_only\":false,\"official_basket\":\"ring2\",\"primary_horizon\":20,\"qid\":\"smsg_pre\",\"ring2_confidence\":\"M\",\"ring2_lose\":[\"hpq\"],\"ring2_rationale\":{\"lose\":\"Higher memory prices squeeze PC makers without an AI-server offset; Morgan Stanley (2025-11-18) estimates OEMs pass through only about 70% of memory cost inflation and cut HP's gross-margin outlook.\",\"win\":\"A memory profit jump funds memory capex: etch (Lam), memory and HBM test (Advantest), and 300mm wafers (Shin-Etsu, GlobalWafers).\"},\"ring2_win\":[\"advantest\",\"globalwafers\",\"lrcx\",\"shinetsu\"],\"sign_convention\":\"yes -> win basket up / lose basket down; no -> inverted\",\"win\":[\"mu\",\"samsung\",\"skhynix\"],\"yes_criteria\":\"Memory operating profit up sharply quarter on quarter.\"}", "revised_at": "2026-10-02", "revision_note": "Revised 2026-10-02, before the answer date: second-ring basket added and made the scored basket (contract v2).", "history": [ { "sha256": "70d69183fc6fde63b72a1cbf37831aa81f56239b2d905bef8bbcf2ea7d0edfa5", "committed_at": "2026-09-13" }, { "sha256": "218241cbddb69644142393e0ffc15d5da2de3e9bfc38008044af855c5b3ab7f9", "committed_at": "2026-09-15" } ] }, "q": "Do Samsung's preliminary Q3 numbers show memory profit jumping the way HBM4 volume to NVIDIA would require?", "yes": "Memory operating profit up sharply quarter on quarter.", "no": "Memory profit flat or down.", "why": "This is the first hard number on whether Samsung is back in the HBM race — two weeks before SK hynix reports.", "day_index": null, "next_checkpoint": null, "sessions_to": null, "state": "reported", "members": [ { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "label": "Samsung", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 262000.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 223500.0, "day_pct": 5.6738, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -14.6947, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "label": "SK hynix", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 1681000.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 1294000.0, "day_pct": 5.8054, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -23.022, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "mu", "tk": "MU", "label": "MU", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 1035.677, "entry_close": null, "last": 913.67, "day_pct": 1.9641, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -11.7804, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "asml", "tk": "ASML", "label": "ASML", "group": "win2", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 1769.79, "entry_close": null, "last": 1676.6899, "day_pct": 2.8114, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -5.2605, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "lrcx", "tk": "LRCX", "label": "LRCX", "group": "win2", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 320.59, "entry_close": null, "last": 260.81, "day_pct": -1.0021, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -18.6469, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "amat", "tk": "AMAT", "label": "AMAT", "group": 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"last": 220.88, "day_pct": 1.484, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -11.6339, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "globalwafers", "tk": "6488.TWO", "label": "GlobalWafers", "group": "win2", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 1130.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 880.0, "day_pct": 4.2654, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -22.1239, "stale": 0 } ], "series": null, "today": {}, "horizons": {}, "horizons2": {}, "observed": { "from": "2026-10-08", "sessions": 9, "dates": [ "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-19", "2026-10-20", "2026-10-21" ], "ew": [ 0.0, 0.3136, -2.1736, -4.2736, -7.0621, -11.5401, -13.0029, -12.211, -13.9129, -12.1567 ], "sox": [ 0.0, -0.4929, -3.1382, -3.4098, -7.5136, -8.3283, -11.8487, -10.4204, -10.7121, -8.9419 ], "win": [ 0.0, -0.2201, -4.4762, -11.1959, -12.9241, -18.2856, -19.0741, -17.8181, -20.0001, -16.499 ], "lose": null, "win2": [ 0.0, 0.3701, -2.6422, -6.1564, -8.9014, -13.7771, -15.4467, -14.4975, -16.4743, -15.5466 ], "lose2": null, "up": -16.499, "ew_now": -12.1567, "up_ew": -4.3423, "sox_now": -8.9419, "up_sox": -7.5571, "down": null }, "primary_horizon": 20, "official": { "counts": false, "state": "unscored", "reason": "answered with no clear signal: no direction, so no forecast -- shown as an observation, not in the score" }, "record": { "committed_at": "2026-10-02", "answer_date": "2026-10-08", "sha256": "685221e5fbb97b7fe220eec71a841918e5c5b2854d71c2a702d56bea4501b088", "verdict": "none", "baseline": "2026-10-02", "last_session": "2026-10-21", "legs": [ { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "group": "win", "ring": 1, "symbol": "005930.KO", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "KRW", "weight": 0.3333, "contribution": -6.3406, "commit_close": 276000.0, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 223500.0, "day_pct": 5.6738, "since_commit": -19.0217, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "group": "win", "ring": 1, "symbol": "000660.KO", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "KRW", "weight": 0.3333, "contribution": -9.904, "commit_close": 1841000.0, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 1294000.0, "day_pct": 5.8054, "since_commit": -29.7121, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "mu", "tk": "MU", "group": "win", "ring": 1, "symbol": "MU.US", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "USD", "weight": 0.3333, "contribution": -4.9951, "commit_close": 1074.7208, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 913.67, "day_pct": 1.9641, "since_commit": -14.9854, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "asml", "tk": "ASML", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "ASML.US", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 1867.3101, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 1676.6899, "day_pct": 2.8114, "since_commit": -10.2083, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "lrcx", "tk": "LRCX", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "LRCX.US", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 347.49, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 260.81, "day_pct": -1.0021, "since_commit": -24.9446, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "amat", "tk": "AMAT", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "AMAT.US", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 540.04, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 408.94, "day_pct": 0.9778, "since_commit": -24.276, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "siltronic", "tk": "WAF.DE", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "WAF.XETRA", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "EUR", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 83.85, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 64.35, "day_pct": -0.2326, "since_commit": -23.2558, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "hanmi", "tk": "042700.KS", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "042700.KO", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "KRW", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 272000.0, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 203000.0, "day_pct": 1.5508, "since_commit": -25.3676, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "shinetsu", "tk": "4063.T", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "SHECY.US", "priced_via": "adr", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 19.33, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 18.57, "day_pct": -0.5889, "since_commit": -3.9317, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "advantest", "tk": "6857.T", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "ATEYY.US", "priced_via": "adr", "currency": "USD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 255.19, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 220.88, "day_pct": 1.484, "since_commit": -13.4449, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "globalwafers", "tk": "6488.TWO", "group": "win2", "ring": 2, "symbol": "6488.TWO", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "TWD", "weight": null, "contribution": null, "commit_close": 1190.0, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 880.0, "day_pct": 4.2654, "since_commit": -26.0504, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null } ], "no_series": [], "benchmarks": { "from": "2026-10-02", "to": "2026-10-21", "sessions": 13, "win": -21.2397, "lose": null, "ew": -14.1354, "sox": -12.4553, "series": { "dates": [ "2026-10-02", "2026-10-05", "2026-10-06", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-19", "2026-10-20", "2026-10-21" ], "win": [ 0.0, -0.339, -2.6239, -2.6358, -5.7988, -6.0109, -10.015, -16.2943, -17.9356, -22.9046, -23.6845, -22.4838, -24.5204, -21.2397 ], "ew": [ 0.0, 1.0403, 2.0763, 0.8046, -2.2525, -1.946, -4.3772, -6.4299, -9.1555, -13.5326, -14.9625, -14.1885, -15.852, -14.1354 ], "sox": [ 0.0, 0.2901, 0.5996, -0.6092, -3.8584, -4.3323, -6.8755, -7.1366, -11.0821, -11.8654, -15.25, -13.8768, -14.1572, -12.4553 ] }, "win_ew": -7.1043, "win_sox": -8.7844 }, "companies": [ { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "symbol": "005930.KO", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 100.0, 98.5507, 97.2826, 94.9275, 94.9275, 90.7609, 84.058, 84.058, 76.087, 78.0797, 78.9855, 76.6304, 80.9783 ] }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "symbol": "000660.KO", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 100.0, 96.3064, 93.5904, 91.3091, 91.3091, 87.1809, 78.3813, 77.0777, 68.5497, 69.0929, 69.3645, 66.4313, 70.2879 ] }, { "id": "mu", "tk": "MU", "symbol": "MU.US", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 98.9831, 97.2714, 101.2197, 96.3671, 95.7307, 92.0131, 88.6779, 85.0574, 86.6495, 81.7738, 84.1986, 83.377, 85.0146 ] } ], "official": { "counts": false, "state": "unscored", "reason": "answered with no clear signal: no direction, so no forecast -- shown as an observation, not in the score" }, "horizons": {} } }, { "qid": "mu_fq4", "id": "mu_fq4", "who": "Micron FQ4", "tk": "MU", "d": "2026-09-30", "confirmed": true, "status": "mixed", "direction": 1, "auto": false, "marked_at": "2026-10-01T13:25:38Z", "entry_date": null, "win": [ "mu" ], "lose": [ "skhynix", "samsung" ], "observe_only": false, "win2": [], "lose2": [], "ring2_edges": [], "ring1_edges": [ { "id": "mu", "label": "" }, { "id": "skhynix", "label": "" }, { "id": "samsung", "label": "" } ], "labels": { "mu": "MU", "skhynix": "SK hynix", "samsung": "Samsung" }, "has_r2": false, "contract_version": 2, "commitment": { "answer_date": "2026-09-30", "committed_at": "2026-09-29", "sha256": "c4be08e4e586c4ec246aea8a04df21ca62b54e19e92d6be6598e769ed5624b9c", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": true, "revised_at": "2026-09-29", "revision_note": "Revised 2026-09-29, before the answer date: second-ring basket added and made the scored basket (contract v2).", "history": [ { "sha256": "1caadaa2e0db4f1eee653bc7ee25db5b87a4c73c2e5e95e89131c8e51739690b", "committed_at": "2026-09-13" } ], "liquidity": { "checked_at": "2026-09-29", "min_adv_usd": 250000, "legs": { "mu": { "symbol": "MU.US", "adv_usd": 32652739091, "last_close": "2026-09-28" }, "skhynix": { "symbol": "000660.KO", "adv_usd": 6445729906, "last_close": "2026-09-29" }, "samsung": { "symbol": "005930.KO", "adv_usd": 4765248098, "last_close": "2026-09-29" }, "tel": { "symbol": "TOELY.US", "adv_usd": 34195398, "last_close": "2026-09-24" }, "shinetsu": { "symbol": "SHECY.US", "adv_usd": 10667735, "last_close": "2026-09-28" }, "globalwafers": { "symbol": "6488.TWO", "adv_usd": 318391238, "last_close": "2026-09-29" }, "advantest": { "symbol": "ATEYY.US", "adv_usd": 25158264, "last_close": "2026-09-28" } } }, "ew_map": { "sha256": "9896fc05c9a68d293be335501c6ebb2fb64e1f7bce36545d00aa111bbee6fe01", "n": 62, "symbols": [ "000660.KO", "005930.KO", "011790.KO", "042700.KO", "2317.TW", "3037.TW", "6488.TWO", "688126.SHG", "AJNMY.US", "ALAB.US", "AMAT.US", "AMD.US", "AMKR.US", "AMZN.US", "ANET.US", "ARM.US", "ASGLY.US", "ASML.US", "ASMVY.US", "ASX.US", "ATEYY.US", "AVGO.US", "AXTI.US", "CDNS.US", "CEG.US", "CLF.US", "COHR.US", "CRDO.US", "CRWV.US", "ENR.XETRA", "ENTG.US", "ETN.US", "FN.US", "GEV.US", "GOOGL.US", "HOCPY.US", "HWM.US", "IBIDY.US", "INTC.US", "KLAC.US", "LITE.US", "LRCX.US", "LSRCY.US", "META.US", "MPWR.US", "MRVL.US", "MSFT.US", "MU.US", "NVDA.US", "ORCL.US", "SHECY.US", "SMCI.US", "SNPS.US", "SUOPY.US", "TECK.US", "TER.US", "TOELY.US", "TOKCF.US", "TSM.US", "VRT.US", "WAF.XETRA", "WCH.XETRA" ] } }, "note": "manual: partial — share target not reaffirmed, no HBM4 volume number (NO-side), capex raised (YES-side). Sources: Micron PR and call transcript, 2026-09-30.", "evidence": "Micron FQ4 call 2026-09-30: no 2027 HBM share target given; HBM4 'continue to execute well on our ramp' with no number; capex raised.", "report_date": "2026-09-30", "prereg": { "sha256": "c4be08e4e586c4ec246aea8a04df21ca62b54e19e92d6be6598e769ed5624b9c", "committed_at": "2026-09-29", "answer_date": "2026-09-30", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": true, "contract": "{\"benchmarks\":{\"ew\":\"EW_MAP: equal-weight of the map's priced nodes\",\"sox\":\"SOXQ.US\"},\"contract_version\":2,\"horizons\":[5,10,20,40],\"kind\":\"share\",\"lose\":[\"samsung\",\"skhynix\"],\"no_criteria\":\"Target softened. HBM4 \\\"on schedule\\\" and nothing more.\",\"observe_only\":false,\"official_basket\":\"ring2\",\"primary_horizon\":20,\"qid\":\"mu_fq4\",\"ring2_lose\":[\"advantest\"],\"ring2_rationale\":{\"lose\":\"Established SK hynix memory/HBM tester; share lost by SK hynix reduces its test orders.\",\"win\":\"YES includes capex to match: Micron-specific equipment and wafer suppliers not recorded as suppliers to SK hynix or Samsung.\"},\"ring2_win\":[\"globalwafers\",\"shinetsu\",\"tel\"],\"sign_convention\":\"yes -> win basket up / lose basket down; no -> inverted\",\"win\":[\"mu\"],\"yes_criteria\":\"Share target reaffirmed. HBM4 volume timing given, with capex to match.\"}", "revised_at": "2026-09-29", "revision_note": "Revised 2026-09-29, before the answer date: second-ring basket added and made the scored basket (contract v2).", "history": [ { "sha256": "1caadaa2e0db4f1eee653bc7ee25db5b87a4c73c2e5e95e89131c8e51739690b", "committed_at": "2026-09-13" } ] }, "q": "Will Micron confirm it is on track for its 2027 HBM share target, and put a number on the HBM4 ramp?", "yes": "Share target reaffirmed. HBM4 volume timing given, with capex to match.", "no": "Target softened. HBM4 \"on schedule\" and nothing more.", "why": "Micron is the third supplier into NVIDIA's memory. Every point it wins comes off SK hynix and Samsung.", "day_index": null, "next_checkpoint": null, "sessions_to": null, "state": "reported", "members": [ { "id": "mu", "tk": "MU", "label": "MU", "group": "win", "expected_dir": 1, "report_close": 1064.9424, "entry_close": null, "last": 913.67, "day_pct": 1.9641, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -14.2047, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "label": "SK hynix", "group": "lose", "expected_dir": -1, "report_close": 1776000.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 1294000.0, "day_pct": 5.8054, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -27.1396, "stale": 0 }, { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "label": "Samsung", "group": "lose", "expected_dir": -1, "report_close": 268500.0, "entry_close": null, "last": 223500.0, "day_pct": 5.6738, "since_pct": null, "since_report": -16.7598, "stale": 0 } ], "series": null, "today": {}, "horizons": {}, "horizons2": {}, "observed": { "from": "2026-09-30", "sessions": 15, "dates": [ "2026-09-30", "2026-10-01", "2026-10-02", "2026-10-05", "2026-10-06", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-19", "2026-10-20", "2026-10-21" ], "ew": [ 0.0, 2.4019, 5.2166, 5.5315, 6.8272, 5.3469, 2.0338, 2.8539, 0.0897, -1.1725, -5.1849, -7.7742, -10.4673, -9.0905, -10.2639, -8.5475 ], "sox": [ 0.0, 1.5795, 4.0342, 4.336, 4.6579, 3.4004, 0.0201, -0.4728, -3.1187, -3.3903, -7.495, -8.3099, -11.831, -10.4024, -10.6942, -8.9235 ], "win": [ 0.0, 3.0307, 0.9182, -0.108, -1.8355, 2.1491, -2.7481, -3.3903, -7.142, -10.5078, -14.1616, -12.5549, -17.4753, -15.0283, -15.8574, -14.2047 ], "lose": [ 0.0, 3.0014, 3.2266, 3.2266, 0.5673, -1.4921, -3.885, -3.885, -8.1661, -16.172, -16.8477, -25.3646, -24.0588, -23.4525, -26.1832, -21.9497 ], "win2": null, "lose2": null, "up": -14.2047, "ew_now": -8.5475, "up_ew": -5.6572, "sox_now": -8.9235, "up_sox": -5.2812, "down": -21.9497 }, "primary_horizon": 20, "official": { "counts": false, "state": "unscored", "reason": "answered mixed: no direction, so no forecast -- shown as an observation, not in the score" }, "record": { "committed_at": "2026-09-29", "answer_date": "2026-09-30", "sha256": "c4be08e4e586c4ec246aea8a04df21ca62b54e19e92d6be6598e769ed5624b9c", "verdict": "mixed", "baseline": "2026-09-29", "last_session": "2026-10-21", "legs": [ { "id": "mu", "tk": "MU", "group": "win", "ring": 1, "symbol": "MU.US", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "USD", "weight": 1.0, "contribution": -14.2023, "commit_close": 1064.9124, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 913.67, "day_pct": 1.9641, "since_commit": -14.2023, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "group": "lose", "ring": 1, "symbol": "000660.KO", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "KRW", "weight": 0.5, "contribution": -13.3428, "commit_close": 1765000.0, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 1294000.0, "day_pct": 5.8054, "since_commit": -26.6856, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null }, { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "group": "lose", "ring": 1, "symbol": "005930.KO", "priced_via": "primary", "currency": "KRW", "weight": 0.5, "contribution": -8.9908, "commit_close": 272500.0, "entry_date": null, "entry_close": null, "last": 223500.0, "day_pct": 5.6738, "since_commit": -17.9817, "since_entry": null, "no_series": null } ], "no_series": [], "benchmarks": { "from": "2026-09-29", "to": "2026-10-21", "sessions": 16, "win": -14.2023, "lose": -22.3336, "ew": -8.2952, "sox": -8.9052, "series": { "dates": [ "2026-09-29", "2026-09-30", "2026-10-01", "2026-10-02", "2026-10-05", "2026-10-06", "2026-10-07", "2026-10-08", "2026-10-09", "2026-10-12", "2026-10-13", "2026-10-14", "2026-10-15", "2026-10-16", "2026-10-19", "2026-10-20", "2026-10-21" ], "win": [ 0.0, 0.0028, 3.0336, 0.9211, -0.1052, -1.8327, 2.152, -2.7453, -3.3875, -7.1394, -10.5053, -14.1591, -12.5524, -17.473, -15.0259, -15.855, -14.2023 ], "lose": [ 0.0, -0.4223, 2.5685, 2.7952, 2.7952, 0.1349, -1.9237, -4.3062, -4.3062, -8.5693, -16.553, -17.2329, -25.7172, -24.4247, -23.8244, -26.5468, -22.3336 ], "ew": [ 0.0, 0.2758, 2.6843, 5.5068, 5.8226, 7.1219, 5.6375, 2.3152, 3.1377, 0.3658, -0.8998, -4.9233, -7.5198, -10.2203, -8.8397, -10.0164, -8.2952 ], "sox": [ 0.0, 0.0201, 1.5999, 4.0551, 4.357, 4.679, 3.4212, 0.0403, -0.4528, -3.0992, -3.3709, -7.4764, -8.2914, -11.8132, -10.3844, -10.6762, -8.9052 ] }, "win_ew": -5.9071, "win_sox": -5.2971 }, "companies": [ { "id": "mu", "tk": "MU", "symbol": "MU.US", "group": "win", "values": [ 100.0, 100.0028, 103.0336, 100.9211, 99.8948, 98.1673, 102.152, 97.2547, 96.6125, 92.8606, 89.4947, 85.8409, 87.4476, 82.527, 84.9741, 84.145, 85.7977 ] }, { "id": "skhynix", "tk": "000660.KS", "symbol": "000660.KO", "group": "lose", "values": [ 100.0, 100.6232, 103.8527, 104.3059, 104.3059, 100.4533, 97.6204, 95.2408, 95.2408, 90.9348, 81.7564, 80.3966, 71.5014, 72.068, 72.3513, 69.2918, 73.3144 ] }, { "id": "samsung", "tk": "005930.KS", "symbol": "005930.KO", "group": "lose", "values": [ 100.0, 98.5321, 101.2844, 101.2844, 101.2844, 99.8165, 98.5321, 96.1468, 96.1468, 91.9266, 85.1376, 85.1376, 77.0642, 79.0826, 80.0, 77.6147, 82.0183 ] } ], "official": { "counts": false, "state": "unscored", "reason": "answered mixed: no direction, so no forecast -- shown as an observation, not in the score" }, "horizons": {} } }, { "qid": "orcl_q1", "id": "orcl_q1", "who": "Oracle Q1 FY27", "tk": "ORCL", "d": "2026-09-10", "confirmed": true, "status": "mixed", "direction": 1, "auto": true, "marked_at": "2026-09-11T03:06:33Z", "entry_date": null, "win": [ "nvda", "amd", "vrt" ], "lose": [], "observe_only": false, "win2": [ "tsmc", "ase", "unimicron", "snps", "arm", "skhynix", "mu", "amkr" ], "lose2": [], "ring2_edges": [ { "from": "tsmc", "to": "nvda", "label": "N4/N3 wafers plus CoWoS-L packaging" }, { "from": "tsmc", "to": "amd", "label": "AMD 10-K: relies on TSMC for all CPU/GPU wafers at 7nm …" }, { "from": "ase", "to": "nvda", "label": "Advanced packaging (CoWoS spillover, FoCUS 2.5D for Ver…" }, { "from": "ase", "to": "amd", "label": "ATMP: AMD 10-K names SPIL (ASE subsidiary) among provid…" }, { "from": "unimicron", "to": "nvda", "label": "FC-BGA package substrate for GPU modules" }, { "from": "snps", "to": "nvda", "label": "EDA tools and IP for chip design" }, { "from": "arm", "to": "nvda", "label": "CPU architecture licence for Grace/Vera CPUs" }, { "from": "skhynix", "to": "nvda", "label": "HBM3E/HBM4 stacks" }, { "from": "mu", "to": "nvda", "label": "HBM3E/HBM4 and LPDDR" }, { "from": "amkr", "to": "nvda", "label": "Advanced packaging for NVIDIA platforms -- data center …" } ], "ring1_edges": [ { "id": "nvda", "label": "GPUs (Oracle as buyer): OCI Supercluster up to 131,072 Blackwell GPUs" }, { "id": "amd", "label": "Instinct GPUs: Oracle to deploy 50,000 MI450 from CQ3-2026" }, { "id": "vrt", "label": "" } ], "labels": { "nvda": "NVDA", "amd": "AMD", "vrt": "VRT", "tsmc": "TSMC", "ase": "ASE", "unimicron": "Unimicron", "snps": "SNPS", "arm": "ARM", "skhynix": "SK hynix", "mu": "MU", "amkr": "AMKR" }, "has_r2": true, "commitment": { "answer_date": "2026-09-10", "committed_at": "2026-09-13", "sha256": "6a02cce2d486f5eb97cae644ada9b56edb8b84422fd1900567aef6e141277d2e", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": false }, "note": "auto: mixed — FY27 capex guidance held at $90–95B (not raised), but RPO up $26B QoQ to $664B — Benzinga call transcript & Investing.com, 2026-09-10", "evidence": "Benzinga Q1 FY27 call transcript 2026-09-10: capex \"continue to anticipate $90 to $95 billion\"; RPO \"increased $26 billion from Q4\".", "report_date": "2026-09-10", "prereg": { "sha256": "6a02cce2d486f5eb97cae644ada9b56edb8b84422fd1900567aef6e141277d2e", "committed_at": "2026-09-13", "answer_date": "2026-09-10", "primary_horizon": 20, "valid_preregistration": false, "contract": "{\"benchmarks\":{\"ew\":\"EW_MAP: equal-weight of the map's priced nodes\",\"sox\":\"SOXQ.US\"},\"horizons\":[5,10,20,40],\"kind\":\"tide\",\"lose\":[],\"no_criteria\":\"Capex held or trimmed. RPO flat — the order book stopped growing.\",\"observe_only\":false,\"primary_horizon\":20,\"qid\":\"orcl_q1\",\"sign_convention\":\"yes -> win basket up / lose basket down; no -> inverted\",\"win\":[\"amd\",\"nvda\",\"vrt\"],\"yes_criteria\":\"Capex guidance above last quarter's number. RPO up again, quarter on quarter.\"}" }, "q": "Will Oracle raise its FY27 capex guidance and show RPO still climbing?", "yes": "Capex guidance above last quarter's number. RPO up again, quarter on quarter.", "no": "Capex held or trimmed. RPO flat — the order book stopped growing.", "why": "After the big four, Oracle is NVIDIA's and AMD's hungriest customer. 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], "n_resolved": 4, "n_ahead": 35, "n_upcoming": 33, "next_up": { "d": "2026-10-22", "who": "Intel Q3", "confirmed": true } }